Climate change, floods, disaster, migration

Today we’re doing something different. We’re devoting this episode to last weekend’s huge rain, the flooding and other disasters it spawned, and the climate migrants who will emerge from these incidents. And here I’d like to give my condolences to the family and friends of the more than 200 people confirmed killed in the devastation. 

I know: last week I guaranteed we would share the episode about the nurse migrating to Canada but I thought the topic of climate migration — which I’ve been wanting to discuss for a while — was just too timely to postpone. 

This episode also has a different format. I have two guests: Sagar Shrestha, Director of the Disaster Management Department at the Nepal Red Cross Society and Manjeet Dhakal, Head of the LDC Support Team and Director, at the South Asia office of Climate Analytics. I recorded this very quickly so the first chat with Sagar, which we did Sunday night, lacks the usual introduction and goodbye, and the quality is not quite up to our usual standard. I recorded with Manjeet on Monday evening. He was in Baku, capital of Azerbaijan, so the line wasn’t crystal clear either. 

One note: Unfortunately, since Monday the number of confirmed deaths has risen to 209, as I’m recording on Tuesday, and dozens more people are still missing

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Music by audionautix.com.

Thank you to Himal Media in Patan Dhoka for the use of their studio.

Chapters

• 5:08 Fewer lives lost in recent decades
• 9:32 Role of Red Cross and other non-government actors
• 15:26 Extreme rainfall events growing as average temperature rises
• 20:10 Confident that climate events contributing to migration
• 28:45 3 key steps to managing extreme weather events

Transcript

Marty: 0:14

Hi, everyone. Thanks for choosing to listen to Nepal. Now on the move over the few million other podcasts out there vying for your attention, this is where you'll hear from some of the huge numbers of people leaving this country wedged between India and China, as well as from some of the few who returned to settle in their homeland. Today, we're doing something different. We're devoting this episode to last weekend's huge rain, the flooding and other disasters it spawned, and the climate migrants who will emerge from these incidents. And here I'd like to give my condolences to the family and friends of the more than 200 people confirmed killed in the devastation. I know last week I guaranteed that we would share the episode about the nurse migrating to Canada. But I thought the topic of climate migration, which I've been wanting to discuss for a while, was just too timely to postpone. This episode also has a different format. I have two guests. Sagar Shrestha, director, uh, of the disaster management department at the Nepal Red Cross Society, and Manjit Takal, head of the LDC support team and director at the South Asia Office of Climate Analytics. I recorded this very quickly. So the first chat with Sagar, which I recorded Sunday night, lacks the usual introduction and goodbye. And the quality is not quite up to our usual standard. I recorded with Manjit on Monday evening. He was in Baku, capital of Azerbaijan. So the line wasn't crystal clear, either one. Unfortunately, since Monday, the number of confirmed deaths has risen to 209, as I'm recording on Tuesday, and dozens more people are still missing. Please listen now to my chats with Sagar Shrestha and Manjit Takal.

Sagar Shrestha: 2:17

Let's talk about the yesterday devastations, which, uh, was not something, um, unpredictable because it was predictable, because hydrology and metrology, uh, published a special bulletin four days before, and they are giving alert that, uh, I'm not a climate student, but there is a two kind of system is activating in Nepal, in Nepal sky. That means the mansion was already activated in Nepal, and another kind of system from West Bengal is entering into the Nepal sky. So that two kind of climate system is activation. So, which means precipitation is going to be very high, and across the nepal, there is going to be a huge rainfall. M. And they were saying that, uh, these are the river, most probably, uh, going to be, uh, like, flooded. So this was the very, very clear message from, uh, hydrology and metrology. I really appreciate. According to the DHM, kosi provinces and then Bhagmuti provinces, and then many provinces, three provinces are mostly, mostly devastating, especially focusing for this Kathmandu, uh, and Cabaret, Makmanpur, Ramachap. This closing district of this Kathmandu valley is more devastated, uh, as far as the number is concerned. To the, um, latest data, the government data, there are 100 plus. But it's, it's. It's not only because of the flood, but it's because of this, uh, catastrophe. Ah, in the night bus, night microbus, normally in a highway, uh, government was, um, giving the alert that don't use the buses in the night time. But, um, people are, you know, they are stubborn and the, uh. In total, I think right now, data 105, it's going to be increased every day because many, many communities are still not in axis, if you personally ask me. Red Cross, we have, uh, all across the country, we have the volunteers, we across the country, we have the networks. Uh, but even for us also, it's getting very problematic to getting a data, even if we are very close to Kathmandu. There is a one district called cabaret. So they are saying that there is 17 or 18 municipalities, but most of the municipalities are disconnected. And what kind of devastation is happening there? So far there is no any, no any inflammations. According to our Red Cross data, 10,000 populations are, um, displaced, I would say. And hundred plus lives have been gone. Um, it means if you see the ratio of 2000, uh, ten to 2024, uh, the life loss data is. This is very low if you compare to the earlier data in a small event. Also, there used to be a lot of life casualty, but now maybe because of this information, lot of investment in disaster risk reductions and many things. So we are being able to save the life. But, um, more we can save life if we invest in this behaviour change communication, more in hydro and metro science, more in preparedness and more investment in disaster science and climate science, then definitely we can save a lot of life.

Marty: 5:40

I didn't realise that that alert came four days before. Four days is a lot of time to get prepared, as you say, if people heed the warning.

Sagar Shrestha: 5:51

But if you personally ask me, it's, uh, it's not a natural disaster. I would say this. It's process, it's human disaster. Because why people are making a house in, you know, the close to the river, you know, so I wouldn't say it's a natural disaster. It's just people are so stubborn. People, government have done assertive, uh, uh, rules and regulation that these are. The area is not safe. You don't, you can't make a home.

Marty: 6:19

And so you said about 10,000 households approximately across the country.

Sagar Shrestha: 6:24

Across the country.

Marty: 6:25

Okay, so these are, are these households, would the building be destroyed or people who just were forced to leave because of water or. What exactly does that mean?

Sagar Shrestha: 6:37

Normally it's inundations, right? So there was a flood, there's a uh, water. Water gone. And then people start getting back to their home. So normally the number is going to be a little uh, bit uh, lower from tomorrow also. But the um, totally household damage so far we don't have much real data. Maybe tomorrow we trying our best to receive a data because if Red Cross is not being able to calm the data means you can just imagine because we are the organisation, we do initial rapid assessment in 24 hours. But we are not being able to do that means you can just imagine the situation. We just um, like uh, deployed our NDRT volunteers to the district so they can assist our district chapter for this, uh, assessment. So most probably tomorrow, day after tomorrow, we'll have the very clear picture. 500 plus families, uh, may be totally displaced, I would say according to the news and according to the discussions I engaged today across the country. So let's see until um, tomorrow or day after tomorrow, we can say what is the exact number?

Marty: 7:46

Okay. Okay. I know this is a difficult question, but of those 500 families, what normally would happen to them? Would they be able to rebuild in the same municipality? Do they get assistance from the municipality or from an organisation like the Red Cross or even the Nepal government?

Sagar Shrestha: 8:08

Normally if you see other countries, uh, they are always dependent upon the government. But we have a tendency that normally Nepalese are uh, bit resilient. They really can build themselves. I would proudly say that but that's not always the case. But uh, in Nepal case now a local government is uh, working very nice after this federal structure. This uh, municipal government is functional very well. So they are very closely working with uh, um, uh, those vulnerable communities. And of course yesterday the government has announced that um, all the, all this medical support is um, absolutely free, uh, according to this. And Nepal government uh, tendency often if this happened, then the government also uh, support for the building, uh, constructions. So for that constructions also definitely the Red Cross will more support for this uh, community mobilisation. And often the government also uh, acts the support for the Red Cross as a help tax because we uh, have ah, to distribute the money. Also the primary responsibility is always government. Government will of course do and is an auxiliary role to the government in humanitarian sectors. This community mobilizations data, uh, water livelihood, non food relief items, immediate food protection, gender inclusion components, community engagement component. These are the few components, especially water and sanitations and hygiene. These are the things normally we do immediate life saving. So tomorrow also the immediate meeting is being called by the Ministry of home. So they might have also decide tomorrow something else. Maybe they can just say we'll give this much of money to build the house. So as far as the Red Cross is concerned, more than construction, normally we go for this multi purpose gas for immediate kind of livelihood for few months or a few weeks.

Marty: 10:14

You were saying how local governments now after federalism are doing a very good job of providing this assistance. And at the very beginning you mentioned how the number of deaths was it per um, households affected is actually going down in recent years.

Sagar Shrestha: 10:33

Yes, yes.

Marty: 10:34

So that's very interesting because uh, you would guess that because there's just so many more incidents, climate induced disasters that there would also be more death. But in fact that's not what's happening, that's not happening.

Sagar Shrestha: 10:48

And then because normally in uh disaster event and crisis event and handling all these things, I think we are the very pioneer organisation, I would proudly say that um, we teach Nepal government how to respond. You know we started with six t's that time we call it in Sanskrit daibi means ah, goddesse prakop means disaster. Disaster happened out of the God. God is making all kind of disaster. If you see Nepal government document in sixties or seventies they have a policy that, a Davi Prakop policy which means the every disaster event is created by um, God. That's, that's the policy. But now from God devastation now in, we are now in hydro and metro. You can imagine I. It means this is really a progression we are growing in hydrology and metrology this science. But it's a high time to have a behaviour changes, you know, people, community, they are being sent these messages. We broadcasted this public service announcement also social media campaign and many, many things, many many organisations including media have done. But um, it's all about behaviour. So even if it was predicted uh, the study devastation was um, pretty ah, huge. So this kind of thing is evolving in Nepal but still a little bit of behaviour change. And I would say that a lot of investment in this hydroscience and metro science is very important in Nepal case of course there is a m. It's a huge number of death. 100 plus is not a joke. But as far as the infast structure is concerned, um, I'm not engineer but if I can say as a layman also Nepal government will take definitely a five year to construct this um, infrastructure, uh damage because most of the bridges are damaged, most of the highway are damaged. Uh, no road is working to connect with the Kathmandu. So most probably from tomorrow, there will be no. Any kind of, uh, vegetable or food are receiving from the Tara'I. So maybe few days later, uh, if the government is not being able to construct the road, then the price is going to be a high. So, you know, this cascading thing is happening with one event and a lot of problems is going to happen.

Marty: 13:14

Okay, well, thank you very much. This has been very interesting. Thank you for taking the time. Manjit Dakal, welcome to Nepal now podcast.

Manjit Dhakal: 13:34

Thank you.

Marty: 13:35

It's great to have you here. I know you're in Baku for some pre cop meetings. You have a very busy agenda. So I really appreciate you taking the time. Today we're speaking following, uh, this terrible incident of extremely heavy rainfall and then flooding and landslides that happened here in Nepal over the weekend. I want to talk a little bit about that and its effect on people and, in fact, on what, uh, a lot of people are terming climate migrants, people who are forced to move because of the impacts of climate change. But before we get there, although the disaster over the weekend and the extreme weather was unprecedented, in a way, it wasn't unexpected because Nepal has been having more and more extreme weather events over the last decade. I would say, at least, I wonder if you can put that in context for me and just talk about how the weather has changed in Nepal recently, particularly with more extreme events.

Manjit Takal: 14:44

Thank you. Yes. Um, it was an unfortunate situation, uh, what has been observed in the last weekend, uh, in terms of the heavy and exactly as you said, unprecedented rainfall that triggered flooding, uh, and landslide, um, across the country, as we are aware. So Nepal received almost 80% of the rainfall during the monsoon season that extends from June to September. Um, but then what we have observed, um, by analysing the recent data, is that the amount of the rainfall, even, it doesn't change much, um, in terms of the annual rainfall, the extent of the extreme has been very disturbing. This does not limit here, uh, as we observe this, uh, in a different, uh, scenario moving ahead, many of the models indicates that the frequency of the extreme precipitation events will rise, leading to the higher risk of flash flooding, um, in the mountainous area, also the breast of the glacier lake, this looks like a new normal, uh, which has a very strong attribution to the increasing temperature. And as the intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports revelled, um, recently, every degree of warming will lead to an exponential rise of floods and the rainfall extreme across the country and that's already happening in Nepal.

Marty: 16:27

Last evening I talked to someone from the Nepal Red Cross society and we talked a little bit about the immediate damage based on the data that they had. One of the things I asked about was the number of families displaced who may in fact be permanently displaced rather than, you know, people who are flooded out and then can go back to their homes. And he estimated roughly at that time it was around 500 families. Because I know, I know terminology matters in this area. Is it correct to call those people climate migrants? Assuming they're not going back home, they're going to have to move on somewhere else?

Manjit Takal: 17:09

I believe so. Uh, for me I wouldn't mind calling uh, them as a climate migrant. Um, there has been some studies in different parts of the country where the extreme as well as the slow onset event, um, extreme at this one, like a flood in the landslide, slow onset where the water availability has been dried in a longer span of time or the agriculture practise, um, uh, are not possible because of not having enough water. So this kind of slow onset events have also led people to move from their permanent location and it's very difficult to get back to where they are. So I think this evolving impacts that we have been facing, um, which the scientific reports confirm that we will increase more in the coming year. I think this is also a stark reminder that we have to look at our policies at home in terms of how to respond this and look it from the angle of climate change.

Marty: 18:16

You make a really interesting point because myself having been here for a uh, number of years now, I'm more used to hearing about people affected by those slow onset uh, climate change where often it's people living in the hills who are farming and over time the conditions change. Usually the fields become drier and they're really forced to move because they can no longer farm. But um, this idea of climate migration doesn't seem to have caught on yet. Do you think that's correct?

Manjit Takal: 18:54

There are obviously other um, compounding effect as well. Um, obviously this get links to the broader context, uh, the availability of the job and people moving for opportunities, um, and so on. But what I am confident is there has been uh, a couple of research and the growing research in the different parts of the country where the researcher has claimed, uh, those moments linking it strongly and attributing to the climate change. Uh, there has been some study in the himalayan area where uh, the grazing land for a cattle has decreased substantially and the farming practise has to be changed. People have to change their lifestyle, uh, from livestock to some other options. Um, obviously the agriculture practise has also been coming down. That's what we see in our regular census. Um, and the service sector has been growing, but there may not be still, uh, enough, uh, maybe a study across the country to claim this. But I'm very confident the study that has been done, done in many of the river pocket area or in some of the hills in the mountain area has a very strong attribution in terms of both extreme as well as the slow onset event where people have to move, uh, from one place to another. Also, uh, the difficult part is in almost all these instances when people move from one location to other, there is no guarantee that this new location is also climate resilient or not because these are not planned relocation and people have to settle, uh, whatever the appropriate find place that they find in. It's more like moving from one kind of climate impacts to the other kind of climate impacts. There are other kinds of, kind of uh, impacts as well that uh, makes it compounding, um, in addition. But climate plays an important role in many of these migrations.

Marty: 21:13

You read my mind there because my next question was going to be focusing on the people themselves. Where do they go? Um, obviously if they're farmers and many of them I think are, then they're going to go somewhere where they think they have some land that they can farm on. But as you pointed out, there's no guarantee that land will be suitable, uh, or not be affected by climate change as well. I get the feeling that many of these people, if not most of them, are kind of on their own. Even if they leave in a very devastating event like the one we saw over the weekend, where the government and civil society and many other sectors are involved in relief and rescue. Uh, eventually they're left mostly to their own devices. Do they end up moving as close as possible as they can so they're not extremely disrupted? Or are they more likely to move to a bigger place where they may be able to get to earn wages if the agriculture work just isn't available?

Manjit Takal: 22:27

So in many of these instances there has been a um, temporary solution, uh, provided, for example, um, every time when there are uh, such extreme events where it get attention on the media, um, there has been um, uh, a financial package, uh, provided by the central government, sometimes the provincial or the local government as well. It's very difficult for any community to who are impacted, whose uh, livelihood, uh, has been disturbed, who may not even have a proper documentation of their, of their formal identity documents, to go to the offices, um, and claim those compensation. I think it would be very important to move from this kind of um, a temporary ad hoc solution to a permanent solution. Um, there has also been uh, some examples in the past where a government has done a planned relocation. And these are mostly in a case of the development projects, um, where the bigger construction or the bigger hydropower are being built. Uh, there has been some um, kind of uh, permanent way of looking at this after the earthquake. But in most of the extreme events it has been unplanned or even uh, for people to. And this gets linked to the, to the bigger, bigger, um, other complex problem as well. Um, if the, if the community or if the family does not have a proper documentation, um, in terms of their citizenship or other documents, it will be very difficult to claim or move to the formal process in terms of relocation. So this has to be seen obviously from the wider perspective. Uh, and it will be very important to find, uh, permanent solution where now the way the federal system, um, has been implemented and we have a very strong local government that are very close to the communities to find the ways in terms of, if needed, a migration of relocation of communities, if not then settling them to where, uh, their original location is. Um, so I think that piece is missing in terms of the bigger policy regulation process.

Marty: 25:06

That's what I feel when we're talking about possible improvements. You said, uh, you mentioned permanent solution. Is this in large part a funding mechanism that would identify the people who have been completely, uh, wiped out and need to move somewhere else so that that funding could be quickly available to help them, you know, resettle and restart their lives.

Manjit Takal: 25:35

So first, when we see this from the climate angle, uh, we see this from the side that the people does not have to face the impact or if they can get an early information of this kind of extreme, so that um, the community can be relocated temporarily, minimising the damage, um, and uh, looking at the situation, the level of damage, whether they can again come back to the, to the regular original place or not. And when I say this, the role of the early warning system plays an important role. Uh, even in the case of this recent, uh, extreme flooding in Nepal. The weather forecasting division, the river alert, uh, system, uh, within the department of hydrology and Metrology has forecasted that there will be an extreme rainfall, um, and there were even a warning said not to have a, ah, public transport for the longer distance run during night during these days. And many alert were shared also to the communities, um, nearby to the river. Um, this is one of the success stories that we have whenever we are nearby to the major river. And if there are a lot, our mobile system automatically gets alerted. So the first one is to help community, providing them with their prior information. This forecasting with the early warning system, um, so that the damage can be reduced both in terms of human life, but also the property damage. Um, then there are also ways to make, ah, a development climate resilient, um, and that goes to both, ah, private property as well as the public like investment to the river, um, bank management system or many, many, many other, including, uh, building or enhancing, uh, this temporary settlement area. Usually in many places across the country and particularly in the plain area, people are temporarily relocated in the schools or the public building, which obviously lack a facility, the basic facility for sanitation or cleaning drinking water. And obviously will not be feasible to stay there for longer. The problem for women will be more difficult. Women, elderly or the people with the disabilities. Because obviously this temporary settlement does not have all those facilities. So I would say that after all these are done, we also have to then think about, uh, the relocation of the community. Because if you ask anyone, people obviously does not want to move from their original place where it's not only about, uh, the financial or the attachment, but also the cultural attachment, the historic attachment with their ancestors and so on. I think it goes with the flow that the early warning system and all this preparedness to be done in advance. The immediate response to be in place for people to move or to alert them and to provide with immediate service, um, facility. And then also think about the long term solution. So usually, um, in this kind of extreme events, we miss this, uh, the three major blocks that need to be put in place. And mostly the focus has been in terms of immediate response, which is very important, but can be stopped there.

Marty: 29:22

Great. Thank you. That's a very comprehensive answer. In terms of now, after this latest event, if there was one thing that you would like the government or governments to focus on to become better prepared for the next time this happens, what would that be?

Manjit Takal: 29:43

I would strongly suggest that, as I said earlier, think about these three pieces, preparedness in advance, like the early warning system, the second immediate response and the third, the long term recovery. For now, it's difficult. We obviously have to put a whole effort in terms of immediate response. But it would be very, very important to move from this, um, sometime called the political stunt of, um, providing, uh, the financial package, um, and then forgetting about this disaster to, uh, a whole package of recovery plan, um, and strengthen the role of local government to respond to this impact. One thing I would also add is such climate induced impacts are growing rapidly. Uh, in many cases, these are beyond the capacity of the local government, or even in some cases, the national government as well. So in the climate change, uh, discussion, we term this as loss and damage, where, uh, the situation goes beyond the adaptation capacity. Um, and then the current international funding process to fund climate impacts is not compatible to this kind of situation where countries have to go through the lengthy proposal writing and the bureaucratic process. So the system, the international financial, uh, mechanism also has to be reformed, uh, to be compatible to respond, uh, to provide immediate response to such, uh, climate extremes.

Marty: 31:32

It seems very fitting that you brought in that global financial aspect to, uh, an issue that is, of course, global in scope, climate change and extreme weather events. Thanks again for doing this. I really appreciate it. And, uh, I hope we have another chance to talk again in the future.

Manjit Takal: 31:53

Sure. Yeah, all the best. And thanks for, uh, putting this attention to what the country has been facing. Now, I've also put a very small piece in my, in my personal blog. You can visit. It's manjith.com dot np. Thanks.

Marty: 32:10

Thanks again to Sagar Shrestha and Manji Dakal for speaking to me with very short notice this week. Let me know what you thought about the episode. Send a text by clicking on the link at the top left of the notes to this episode. Message us on social media we're apollnowpod, or email me@nepalnowpodmail.com I'll talk to you next time.